| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Maryland | 7-39 | 1370.8 | -55.1 | 1315.7 | 15.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Florida A&M | 56-14 | 1315.7 | +73.9 | 1389.6 | 88.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Florida International | 28-38 | 1389.6 | -22.6 | 1367.0 | 49.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Memphis | 26-55 | 1363.4 | -36.4 | 1327.0 | 10.0% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Rice | 27-21 | 1327.0 | +36.0 | 1363.0 | 31.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | UAB | 53-33 | 1363.0 | +28.7 | 1391.7 | 50.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | South Florida | 13-48 | 1391.7 | -19.1 | 1372.6 | 8.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Navy | 32-42 | 1372.6 | +14.1 | 1386.7 | 17.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Tulsa | 40-21 | 1378.4 | +29.0 | 1407.4 | 54.2% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Tulane | 24-35 | 1407.4 | +11.7 | 1419.1 | 18.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | UConn | 45-48 | 1419.1 | +11.1 | 1430.2 | 23.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | East Carolina | 3-42 | 1430.2 | -45.3 | 1384.9 | 21.3% |